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1. Pittsburgh Steelers

I think the Steelers can be really good this year. How good? I’m not going to say, because I don’t want to jinx it. But good. For three years Steeler fans have suffered through the “Big Chunks” Bruce Arians offense. 5 wide receiver sets and go routes on 3rd and 3, its been a nightmare watching a talented Steeler offense be squandered by an offensive coordinator who’s only mission is to average 30 yards per play. Well, its possible, its maybe even probable, that the Steelers offense is reaching its tipping point. The point at which Steeler fans stop being frustrated and start being amazed. They’ve got maybe the best big play receiver in football in Mike Wallace, a hall of famer in Hines Ward, one of the most under utilized TE in all of football in Heath Miller, and a running back just waiting for his time to truly shine in Rashard Mendenhall. But that’s what they had last year, when they struggled to put up 13 points against Buffalo. So what’s changed? Antonio Brown.

Now I don’t want to sound crazy (but I do sound crazy, and at least I know that), but Antonio Brown may just be the best wide receiver the Steelers have. In fact, I challenge any Steeler fan who has watched all three preseason games to give me 5 good reasons Hines Ward should start over Antonio Brown. You can’t do it. And I know its only preseason, but its not a one game performance that I’m judging. Its the entire run in the playoffs last season, where he was instrumental in the Steelers run to the Super Bowl. Its the first preseason game against Washington where the entire team seemed to take the night off, except Brown who looked terrific, and was the only WR the QBs were looking to. Its the second preseason game against Philly where he made a sweet move against “elite” CB Asante Samuel to get wide open for an easy 22 yd TD. Its the third preseason game when he went full on beast mode, and took over the game catching a routine slant over the middle and turning into a 77 yd TD using his speed and elusiveness followed by a 44 yd bomb from Roethlisberger where he made a great adjustment and caught the ball over two defenders. Not to mention the sure TD he had against Washington when he was five yards from any defender but Byron Leftwich missed him.

No this isn’t some fanboy excitement because a player made a couple good plays. This is a player who is showing that he is a breakout star in the making. I said during the latter half of the season that Mike Wallace was a good wide receiver but needed to show that he could take it to the next level by being more than just a deep threat. He needed to show that he could take over a ballgame, and create separation from defenders using more then just his speed, but his route running. Wallace still hasn’t shown it, and I’m not saying he won’t, but Antonio Brown is showing it. Yes, its the preseason, yes the games aren’t real, yes it probably won’t be so easy once they’re playing real football. But indulge me for a second and lets take a look at what Antonio Brown does to the offense.

We all know what Bruce Arians wants to do, he wants to spread the field and throw down field. Well boy do the Steelers have the personnel to do that. Hines Ward, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jerricho Cotchery. Oh, and lets throw in Miller and Mendenhall for fun. Now last season when the Steelers used three wide it was usually Hines/Wallace/Randle El and then occasionally Emmanuel Sanders. A lot of those third down receptions went to Randle El last year (he had 22 catches last year, 15 for first downs), because the teams were doubling Hines and Wallace. There’s one thing we can say for certain: Randle El does not have the explosiveness of Antonio Brown (and neither does Emmanuel Sanders for that matter). So insert Brown into that equation and now you’ve got Wallace/Ward/Brown as your 3 wide receiver set. You have to double Wallace otherwise he’ll beat you deep, you probably should double Hines since he catches anything thrown within 5 yds of him. That leaves Antonio Brown one on one with probably a nickel corner or a safety. And if he shows even close to what he’s shown in the preseason, that is going to be deadly. Defenses are going to be running scared of the Steelers’ wide receivers. And they should be. Because Jericho Cotchery, the #3 for the Jets last season, will probably end up

Now you toss in a little Mendenhall (who got the most carries in the NFL last year counting the postseason), and if the Steelers are able to establish any kind of running game. we’re looking at an almost unstoppable force of offense. Mix that with the Steelers defense which I haven’t even mentioned once. Yeah, they’ll be alright.

2. Green Bay Packers

The Packers snuck into the playoffs last year at 10-6. No one remembers this because they blitzkrieg’d everyone in the playoffs on their way to a Super Bowl victory. Well I expect them to pick up right where they left off. They’ve made improvements to their offensive line, they’ve getting RB Ryan Grant back, and they didn’t lose any important pieces defensively. I like them so much more then any other team in the NFC it would shock me if they didn’t repeat as NFC champs, especially if they get homefield.

3. New England Patriots

Ugh, I guess I have to write a paragraph about the friggin Patriots. Well let’s see, there’s what “should” happen, and then there’s what will happen. What should happen is that they brought in two locker room cancers (Ocho Cinco and Fat Albert Haynesworth), and that should blow up in their face in amazingly hilarious fashion ending with them somehow missing the playoffs and being forced to cut both after the season. What will happen is that both players will be on their best behavior, they’ll resurrect their careers, and the Patriots will once again dominate the AFC. They will be the juggernaut going into the playoffs that no team’s fan wants to face but every team’s fan wants to lose. Hold on, barf bag time.

4. San Diego Chargers

Philip Rivers gets no respect, and its probably not his fault. The guy puts up big numbers and plays well. Problem is he’s coached by Norv Turner, and he hasn’t had a running game since LT was replaced with his 74 yr old self three years ago. But this season things should come together for him. He’s no longer got a WR corps that’s holding out for more money while he throws to UFL rejects. He’s also got a defense that was easily top 5 last season, a cupcake schedule against his own crappy division, and an out of division schedule that includes Minnesota, Chicago, Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Miami. If that’s not 11 easy wins I don’t know what is.

CONTENDERS

5. Philadelphia Eagles

Sorry ESPN, the Eagles are not an elite football team. There’s a couple things wrong with this team. Well, actually only one, Michael Vick, but there’s two this wrong with Vick:
He can’t stay healthy. He’s only played in every game of a 16 game season once. Once. And his backup is Vince Young. (Now that I think of it, if I liked the Lions more I could have created the “Only If Their Quarterback Can Stay Healthy” division with the Eagles and Lions.)

People love to forget this but, he’s also not that great a quarterback. Maybe I’m wrong about this and the “new” Michael Vick is truly a changed player, but looking back at his time in Atlanta he was a superstar who had a career passer rating in the 70s and averaged a 1:1 TD/Int ratio. He’s flashy and he’s a great fantasy player, but he throws a lot of interceptions and has a completion percentage in the 50s.

Now yes, I know that last season he had a great season, much better than he ever did in Atlanta, but if he can’t be what he was last season then they won’t compete for the Super Bowl. They’ll be out of the playoffs well before then.

6. New Orleans Saints

There no more perplexing team in the NFL than the Saints to me. I’m not a big fan of any of their running backs (Pierre Thomas, really?) or their wide receivers. Their defense is non-existent (I don’t mean that they’re bad, I mean that its shocking to me that, yes, there are 11 guys who suit up and play defense for them every week). But whenever I see a team like this where the things just don’t add up I immediately point to the coach. Sean Payton is a great coach. I gave the Saints less than a zero percent chance of winning Super Bowl XLIV, and they did. And yet, when I remember back to that game, all I think is “how the hell did Manning let that one slip away?!” That’s the Saints though, they’re sneaky good, and I’ll never count em out.

7. Indianapolis Colts

Is it just me or is Peyton Manning’s offseason surgery the new Brett Favre? How many times have we had to hear that Peyton had some surgery that may limit his effectiveness in the upcoming season, and this may be the year the Colts finally falter. One too many for my tastes. We all know what’s going to happen. Peyton’s gonna be fine, the Colts will win anywhere between 11 and 14 games, and Peter King will write up a great piece during Wild Card weekend about how hurt Peyton was during the offseason and what a miracle it is that Peyton even played this season. He’ll win the MVP. Oh yeah, and then they’ll get bounced early from the playoffs.

THE 2010 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For those of you who don’t know, I called the Chiefs dead on last season. Picked them to go 10-6 based on two things: youth and schedule. So this year I tried to find another team I liked to totally turn it around and surprise everyone. I couldn’t find them. The closest I could get is the Bucs. Sure, they went 10-6 last year so they’re hardly a sleeper, but no one took them seriously. They will starting this season. They have, bar none, the most underrated QB in all of football, Josh Freeman. They’ve got great young talent around him with Mike Williams and LeGarrett Blount, and a young coach that brings the best out of his young guys. They will be a force to be reckoned with and should sneak into the playoffs. I wouldn’t be shocked if they win their division.

THE “ELITE” QUARTERBACK CLUB

9. Atlanta Falcons

Everyone loves the Falcons and I guess Atlanta’s mind game worked. They decided to take the focus off of their real problem (defense, where they ranked 16th) and instead put all the attention on their offense by trading everything but the kitchen sink to Cleveland to trade up for WR Julio Jones. Now I’m sure Julio is going to be great, he was certainly an amazing player to watch in college. But lacking another elite WR is hardly why the 13-3 Falcons were one and done after finishing with the NFC’s best record. No, I seem to remember a score that read:

Packers 42
Falcons 14

After three quarters. At home. In the playoffs. So sure, let’s beef up that offense. Maybe this year it’ll be Falcons 35 Packers 42. Progress!

10. New York Jets

I almost created a category just for the Jets. The “If We Keep Saying It Maybe It’ll Come True” division. This team is hype from top to bottom. I cannot wait for them to finally fall back down to Earth and finish 8-8. There are a million reasons why it should happen, so here’s reasons 874,513-874,516:

Reason 874,513: The whole “fear factor” thing needs to wear off. Their bravado gets them at least one or two wins a season, and its ridiculous. The Steelers showed last season that their defense is soft if you aren’t afraid to go at them. Punch them in the mouth and watch them fold.

Reason 874,514: LaDanian Tomlinson had no business having the season he did last year. And there’s no way he’ll do it again. Which means either Shonn Green wakes up from his coma and plays football or their bread and butter running game goes bye bye.

Reason 874,515: Mark Sanchez is simply not an elite quarterback. What nobody wants to say is that Mark Sanchez had a great (not good, great) wide receiving corps last year:

Santonio is one of the best WRs in football
Braylon Edwards was the perfect #2 (he led the team in receptions, yards, touchdowns, yards per catch, big plays (20+ yd catch), and yards after the catch)
Add to that Jericho Cotchery in the slot and Dustin Keller as the tight end and you’ve got one hell of a receiving corps.

Okay, now subtract Edwards and Cotchery and add in Plaxico “I’ve been in jail for 2 yrs” Burress and Derrick “I was washed up 2 yrs ago” Mason. Either Santonio is gonna go for 2000 yds receiving this year or that passing game is going backwards.

Reason 874,516: Last year they won 11 games. Five of those games were won by a touchdown or less. Games against Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Denver were all won by a touchdown or less. All of those teams finished well below 500 last year. The pendulum always swings back.

Do I expect them to actually go 8-8 this season? No. But I’ll have fun rooting for it all the while.

11. Baltimore Ravens

At some point this team is going to fall off a cliff. We all know its coming. This team is led by its stellar defense, and Flacco & co are just along for the ride. And that defense is getting old. Ray Lewis may have one or two years left and Ed Reed hasn’t played a full season in two years. I’m not saying that this is the year that it happens, but you’ve gotta wonder what’s going to happen when the pressure is on Flacco to perform game in and game out. We’ve already seen it many times against the Steelers and in the playoffs that Flacco is not a high pressure guy. So lets say the defense falls from top 5 to say top 10? Or top 15? Do they drop from 12-4 to 10-6? 8-8? Worse?

12. Houston Texans

Do you know how many winning teams Houston has beaten over the last two years? Three: The Colts last year Wk 1, the Chiefs last year, and the Bengals the year before that. That’s it. They’re a combined 31-33 over the four years Matt Schaub has been in Houston. I know he puts up big numbers, but at the end of the day, even with a running game (Arian Foster put up over 1400 yds last year) they were 6-10. At some point those big numbers need to translate into wins.
I like all of the pieces around Schaub. Arian Foster looks like the real deal and Andre Johnson has been a bigger waste of talent in Houston than Fitzgerald in Arizona. It should work, but for some reason it doesn’t. Yes, the defense is bad and needs to get considerably better if they are going to truly compete for a division title, but I think Schaub has a lot to do with it as well.

13. Dallas Cowboys

I like that everyone is jumping back on the Cowboys bandwagon this year. You can kind of understand why. They fired Wade Phillips (and got a way better than expected Jason Garrett), rid themselves of the cancer that was Roy Williams, they’re finally going to give the explosive Felix Jones the starting RB spot, and Dez Bryant looks like he’s gonna be the real deal. But at the end of the day they’ve got to deal with the Tony Romo issue. He’s the Neil O’Donnell of our day. He’s great during the regular season and during non-pressure moments. The moment you put him in a pressure situation he folds like house of cards. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong, but until then he’s with Cutler & co.

14. New York Giants

I know you probably don’t read comic books but this week DC (the publisher of Superman, Batman, and Wonder Woman) is rebooting their entire line and starting fresh. Comic fans around the country are outraged that all the stories they’ve read up until now won’t matter. There will be all new origin stories for all of the major superheroes. Unfortunately for Eli Manning, not even in this new universe will he be a top 5 quarterback. Not even top 10.

15. Chicago Bears

I’m trying to think of a really good analogy for Jay Cutler, but I can’t think of one. Has there ever been another “elite” quarterback who has accomplished so little? Last year was the first time he ever played in a playoff game and so I guess you could argue that beating Seattle was his biggest accomplishment (though I’d still argue that being 8-5 and collapsing down the stretch to allow the 5-8 Chargers to make the playoffs is still a hell of a feat). Let’s not forget how amazingly bad this Bears team is outside of Jay Cutler:

Their defense is getting very old, and guys like Urlacher, Peppers, Tillman, and Briggs are all over 30
Their starting wide receivers are Roy Williams and Devin Hester.
The new kickoff rule is will impact them the most
Matt Forte is no sure thing: last year was the first time he averaged over 4 ypc

MOST LIKELY TO START HOT AND FIZZLE OUT

16. Detroit Lions

If everyone in America picks the same team as their sleeper, then they’re not a sleeper. And this happens every year with the Lions. They are the perennial sleeper pick of America. And every year the same thing happens:

Start hot.
Stafford gets hurt
They suck
Stafford comes back
Repeat.

I mean really, lets get a grip here. Yes, we can all agree that they are absolutely loaded on the defensive line, and will probably keep games close just with their defense. And offensively they’ve got one of the top 7 WR in Calvin Johnson. They’ve also got a real emerging talent at RB in Jahvid Best. They also have Shaun Hill at QB. Yeah, that’s right, I don’t consider Matt Stafford the starting QB of the Lions. Of the 32 games the Lions have played since Stafford was drafted he’s played in 13. That’s less than half. Call me when the guy can stay healthy, because if he can then you’re not wrong, they will be a playoff team for sure. In the meantime it’d be generous to predict them at 8-8.

17. St Louis Rams
18. Cleveland Browns

Everybody loves the young QB. And there may be no better two young QBs right now than Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford. I expect at least two of you to pick one of these teams to go 9-7 or better this year. Well you know what? You’re wrong.
Cleveland plays in a tough division and their star RB is on the cover of Madden. (Don’t believe in the Madden Curse? Watch the 7-9 Seahawks v 11-5 Saints in last years playoffs and get back to me). They’ve got just enough talent to be worthy of a look, but they have crazy schedule down the stretch (they play the Steelers and Ravens twice each in the last 5 weeks of the season). Seriously the NFL should be ashamed of Cleveland’s schedule.

St Louis on the other hand plays in a cupcake division that they could win with 10 guys instead of 11. They’ve also got a downright brutal schedule outside of their division. Here’s their first seven games:

vs Eagles
@ Giants
vs Ravens
vs Redskins
@ Packers
@ Cowboys
vs Saints

There’s absolutely positively no way this team finishes better than 9-7.

19. Tennessee Titans

Matt Hasselbeck might just be the answer in Tennessee. Yeah that’s right, I said it, Matt fricken Hasselbeck. Here’s the thing about Matt Hasselbeck, he’s not great, sometimes he’s not even good. But he’s never bad. Pair him up with Chris Johnson and I think its just what the doctor ordered offensively. Defensively, eh, not so much. They might start hot and surprise some teams, but ultimately, 7-9 is staring them dead in the face.

20. Oakland Raiders

Did you know Oakland finished 8-8 last year? Craziness. I’m not in love with this team, but I think they have enough weapons, that even Jason Campbell might do alright. And defensively they should be right up there once again.

PRETENDERS

21. Kansas City Chiefs

I know I’m about to get a ton of shit for this pick, but I don’t care. I have good reason to pick the Cheifs to finish below 500 this year. I’ll give you two reasons:

1. Todd Haley
2. Matt Cassel

First of all Todd Haley may be one of the top five worst coaches in football. From what I hear he’s a ego-maniacal idiot. He took over playcalling duties before the Chiefs home playoff game last year for no reason other than he wanted more control (and from Charlie Weis no less). And how did that end up? Oh right, they lost by a million points to Baltimore. And then Charlie Weis left to be offensive coordinator of the Gators.

As for Matt Cassel, he went 27-7 TD-INT ratio last year. That’s nearly 4:1 and the Cheifs still only went 10-6. There’s no way he sniffs even close to 3:1. Football Outsiders has a “should have been picked off” stat, and the leader last year: Matt Cassel. Welcome back to below 500 Chiefs. You’ll be here awhile.

22. Denver Broncos

You know what? I’m gonna throw this out there. I think Kyle Orton is a very good, borderline great, quarterback. I think he’s certainly better than 60-70% of the crap we call NFL QBs these days. But for some reason he’s always surrounded by crap. I thought getting rid of Josh McDaniels was probably the right move, but they replace him with who? Oh, that’s right the guy who kept Jake Delhomme for 5 years too many and drove the Panthers organization into the ground (John Fox). Wait a minute… Tanking!

23. Arizona Cardinals

Last week the HP TouchPad went on sale for super cheap and America went crazy. They had to have one. But lost in all the frenzy is that while the TouchPad is a neat little device its no Apple iPad. Sure, for the first few weeks you’ll think “wow, this is amazing, its so cool!” But then reality will set in and you’ll realize that you don’t have an iPad, you have a TouchPad. And while the TouchPad is OK, its no iPad. And while you hear your friends talking about all the cool things the iPad does, you’re left with the TouchPad.

Take my above paragraph and replace the following:
HP TouchPad with Kevin Kolb
America with Arizona
Apple iPad with Elite QB
super cheap with way too much money (5 yrs $63 mil)

GUARANTEED TO START MORE THAN 1 QB THIS SEASON CLUB

24. Washington Redskins

There has been a lot of talk in the offseason about the QB battle in Washington. The battle between Rex Grossman and John Beck. Spoilers, but this is how it’s gonna play out:

Someone wins the job
They suck
They get benched and the other guy is brought in
He wins a game and everyone is happy
Then he sucks
If they haven’t already burned the bridge with #1 he is brought back in
Or the #3 is brought in and he wins
Then he sucks
5-11

25. Minnesota Vikings
26. Jacksonville Jaguars

Not much to say here other than they need a QB and some WRs fast. Their defenses aren’t terrible and they’ve got great running games. They also have Donovan McNabb and David Garrard. Expect to see the rookie QBs, and expect to see them early.

27. San Francisco 49ers

Here’s a fun fact: In the 2005 NFL Draft the 49ers had the #1 overall pick. They badly needed a QB (remember Tim Rattay? Me neither) and so their choices were Alex Smith of Utah or Aaron Rodgers of Cal. They chose Alex Smith because they believed Aaron Rodgers was a system QB. Now in hindsight that turns out to be a monumentally stupid decision. However, my favorite part of this story is this:

Jeff Tedford (coach of Aaron Rodgers):
Coached Aaron Rodgers, Trent Dilfer, David Carr, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller
2/6 with Rodgers and Dilfer (maybe 2.5/6 for David Carr since he wasn’t terrible just average)

Urban Meyer (coach of Alex Smith):
Coached Alex Smith, Chris Leak, Tim Tebow
0/3 (maybe worse since Leak never played a down and Tebow can’t beat out Brady Quinn for the backup spot in Denver)

San Fran took Smith because Rodgers was a system QB and Smith wasn’t. And somehow Alex Smith still starts. Wait a minute… Tanking!

28. Buffalo Bills
29. Miami Dolphins

These two teams are so close to the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes they can taste it. In fact the only reason I didn’t put them down there is because I am absolutely certain these teams will start two QBs this season. Let me first illustrate Miami’s problems:

QB Battle: Chad Henne vs Matt Moore. Winner: Whoever it is in the Miami front office that covets Andrew Luck.
RB Situation: They plan on using Reggie Bush as an every down back.

Schedule: Holy bajeebus. Do me a favor, pull up their schedule and show me 3 definitive wins. I don’t mean games they could win, I mean games you are absolutely certain the Miami Dolphins will win. You can’t do it.

Now on to Buffalo. There problems are much simpler. That have crap for a coach (Chan Gailey), crap for a QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick), crap for RB (Fred Jackson/CJ Spiller), and the worst rushing defense in football. They also have a crap stadium that they hate so much, they take a yearly trip out of the country to be rid of it. So once they fix that, they’ll be fine.

ANDREW LUCK SWEEPSTAKES

30. Seattle Seahawks

Can a team be tanking before the season even starts? Seriously the NFL needs to investigate this. I refuse to believe that there are a group of guys in Seattle’s front office who sat around during the offseason and said “You know who our best option at QB is? Tavaris Jackson.” That didn’t happen.

31. Carolina Panthers

The best thing you can say about Jake Delhomme is that he accidentally played in a Super Bowl. The best thing you can say about Cam Newton is that he got a lot of money to play college football. I won’t be surprised when Carolina ends up being the first team to take a QB back to back with the #1 pick.

32. Cincinnati Bengals

I actually don’t hate the Bengals this year. Their only mistake in the offseason was not trading Carson Palmer (who is clearly not coming back) because I think there’s value there. Oh yeah, their other mistake was not acquiring any talent.

http://baronbatch.blogspot.com/

Draft is coming up next month so that’ll be a little football fix.  We should do a pre-draft podcast too.  Here we go Steelers!